Saturday, January 13, 2007

MVP predictions revisted, EFF

Has anyone looked at the Efficiency statistic much when talking about MVP? Seems like if you take the top efficiency players you have a pretty good starting place for MVP. Here are the current leaders:


PLAYER NAME TEAM GP MPG PTS EFF RPG APG STPG BLKPG EFF48M EFF
1 Kevin Garnett MIN 34 38.4 22.5 29.6 12.5 4.4 1.2 1.94 36.5 29.56
2 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 37 37.5 24.4 26.9 9.4 3.1 0.6 0.65 35.96 26.92
3 Dwyane Wade MIA 29 38.0 27.6 26.9 4.6 7.9 1.7 1.24 33.49 26.9
4 Carlos Boozer UTA 36 37.0 22.0 26.8 11.7 3.1 1.0 0.36 34.79 26.75
5 Yao Ming HOU 27 32.7 25.9 26.5 9.4 2.1 0.4 2.22 36.76 26.52
6 Carmelo Anthony DEN 22 35.2 31.6 25.8 5.6 4.1 1.5 0.41 33.03 25.82
7 LeBron James CLE 35 40.7 26.8 25.5 6.7 6.1 1.5 0.8 30.16 25.54
8 Kobe Bryant LAL 34 38.7 28.0 25.5 5.4 5.4 1.3 0.38 31.39 25.47
9 Gilbert Arenas WAS 35 38.8 30.0 25.4 4.4 6.4 2.1 0.09 30.28 25.37
10 Shawn Marion PHX 35 38.2 19.4 24.7 9.5 1.7 2.0 1.43 30.78 24.69
11 Steve Nash PHX 33 35.5 19.6 24.5 3.2 11.3 0.8 0.03 32.9 24.54
12 Tim Duncan SAS 37 33.9 19.9 24.4 10.1 3.3 0.8 2.0 34.22 24.38


Couple of points regarding EFF:

1. If one of these players doesn't win MVP this year I would be very surprised. Another argument for a Steve three-peat is that this is his best EFF rating year. The two years that he won MVP he was ranked 13th and 16th in EFF.

2. Keving Garnett almost always finishes first in EFF. Two years ago he finished with a 32 EFF.

3. Here is a snippet from the Wikipedia article on Player Efficiency Rating:
Hollinger has set up PER so that the league average, every season, is 15.00, 
which produces sort of a handy reference guide:

*A Year For the Ages: 35.0
*Runaway MVP Candidate: 30.0
*Strong MVP Candidate: 27.5
*Weak MVP Candidate: 25.0
*Bona fide All-Star: 22.5
*Borderline All-Star: 20.0
*Solid 2nd option: 18.0
*3rd Banana: 16.5
*Pretty good player: 15.0
*In the rotation: 13.0
*Scrounging for minutes: 11.0
*Definitely renting: 9.0
*On next plane to Yakima: 5.0



Notice that 30.0 is supposed to be a runaway MVP season. Yet KG almost always gets near or above 30.0 and he's only won the MVP once.

4. If you look at EFF per 48 minutes Yao Ming has the highest rating this year with a 36.76!

5. AI is only 23rd in EFF and T-Mac is 44th! So maybe EFF isn't everything. Still, I bet one of the guys listed above will win MVP.

2 comments:

jake said...

EFF is a great way to look at players. i think its wise of you to note that KG is almost always the king of EFF and almost never MVP. also wisely noted that if you made this list last year or the year before, steve wouldnt have been on it.
all of this is of course further evidence that i have no idea how MVP is actually decided.

dullstone said...

Journalist are always saying you need at least 50 wins (55 in the East for this season, i heard) to be an MVP candidate. 2 years ago Minn had 44 wins and missed the playoffs. Of course, you can't win mvp if your team misses the postseason. Last year Minn really stunk.

*My first post here:) this is tom. i didn't know yall were using real names. heheh