Game soon, time to get this up.
Well, i am not going against SAS again. So i pick Spurs. They seem to get better as the post-season progresses. JVG said, before lastnights game, that detroit is the best team remaining. I was shocked to hear anyone not from detroit, yet alone someone in media say that.
I would think for sure all media would pick LAL-SAS as good as those two teams have looked. I would say they have been consistant too. Sure, SAS went 7 games, but that was against a very very good team. LAL may not play defense as well as the other three teams, but they still play very good defense, right? And their offense is easily the most in sync. Really, i think i am rather inclined to pick LAL over SAS, but i cannot go against spurs and be wrong yet again.
14 comments:
I'm gonna have to go Spurs here too. I'm pretty surprised they got past NO. And, like you said, they just keep looking better and better. Plus, Lakers don't match up well against the Spurs.
Lakers sure could use Bynum though.
I've thought all along this would be the story. I'm still sticking with them but the Lakers certainly have a shot.
I do find it curious that so many 'experts' keep picking against the Spurs. I know they're 'old' but you usually see that kind of thing show in the regular season. In the post-season, old/tired (unless it's injuries) typically doesn't exist.
The Lakers have no great answer for Tim or Tony. Unless Farmar can step up his game (on both ends) Tony's going to have a field day. As for Timmmy, Gasol is not a great defender at all. Turiaf is usually capable but hasn't defended well over the last month. Maybe Mbenga will save the day!
As for the Lakers' advantages? Well Gasol is not one of them. He is much more effective against teams with bigs that aren't good defenders themselves. Thomas, Oberto, and Duncan should all be able to neutralize him. Kobe is a tough guard but if he's defending Manu and being defended by Bowen, they can usually hold him to his averages with him taking more shots than he should be taking to get those numbers. Pop will live with that. The one blessing here is if the Spurs offense is struggling, Pop has, lately at least, been pulling Bowen in favor of Finley or Udoka. Lamar Odom is the only guy that the Lakers have that the Spurs won't have an obvious answer for and his killer instinct is just plan absent. He's really good, I love what he does for this team but... he won't carry this team to victory that's for sure.
yea i can't wait for timmy to retire so i can pick someone besides spurs. but until then...
nice, game. Just when i thought lakers were done for, completely turned it around.
That out-of-bounds call on duncan with 1:00 left was awful. Don't see how they could have called that. With Gasol swiping at the ball, he had to have either knocked it out of duncan's hand(out-of-bounds on gasol than) or missed the ball and hit him on the arm (foul on gasol). Either way that is spurs ball.
Whats more, refs have an indicator they use to help determine if a swipe hit the ball or the arm. If the ball goes down, it is a swipe; if the ball pops up, it is a foul. On the play in question, the ball popped up out of duncan's hands.
So, a clear foul, and even if it wasn't, the other option had to be an out-of-bounds call on LAL.
So true Tom.
Then they made a make up call the when Manu knocked it out of bounds.
Stupid refs.
yea that call was terrible. there were a few bad ones, but when a call gets blown in the last few minutes in a close (palyoff!) game it really makes me insane no matter which team gets Fd.
more to the point of the thread though, if i'm a lakers fan i'm scared shitless right now. SA looked vicious in the first half. (which supports my "spurs can only play one good half per game" theory who is in a bloody combat right now with my "if timmy plays like this, there's no way SA is losing to anyone" theory.
i'm not sure how much of SA falling off was due to fatigue. i know jeremy and avery johnson don't think tired/fatigue is a big deal when it's playoffs =), but when i picture myself going through all the crap the spurs went thru in the 48 hrs prior to that game, i can't help but think i'd be totally out of it. one thing's for sure- all those travelling delays/difficulties certainly couldn't have helped them any.
having said that, i gotta hand it to the lakers. they really turned it on and made some huge stops in the second half. i'm sure their intensity in that second half had just as much (or more) to do with the W as SA's fatigue, but i'm not sure they will be able to replicate that intensity for 3 more Ws.
their bench really looked great, but are they going to be able to count on that in SA? or even in LA tomorrow? dunno. jer?
and kobe... sheesh. what the heck can you say about that sonofabitch
you're right though shasher, that was an obvious make up call. stupid refs
I am not sure which team i rather have the pistons play. Maybe i'll figure it out near end of the series.
I don't think a lot of predictable data came out of this game. I'm thrilled the Lakers won but don't think the way either team played will be indicative of the entire series, it was a game of two halves and a game of extremes.
My take?
The first half: The Lakers come out over calm/confident after 5 days of rest and the knowledge that the Spurs have only had 44 hours since their last, tough, game of which 10 were spent trying to sleep in a plane (note: this wasn't a Southwest flight. Kobe works, a little too calmly, on getting everyone else going which contributes to their weak offensive production and high propensity for turnovers. The Spurs came out hyped up, worried that their energy level would be way too low to compete with a rested, younger, more athletic Lakers team. The result, a Lakers team moving slower than the Spurs, telegraphing passes for steals. The Spurs running out, uncharacteristicly, getting easy buckets. So... the Lakers underachieved and the Spurs to overachieved.
The second half: A good portion of the 3rd quarter started out very similar to the 1st half because San Antonio was paranoid about everything above AND the fact that they consistently turned out pathetic 3rd quarters against the Hornets. The problem? Swings happened on both ends. The Lakers got focused, Kobe got going, and Phil made some defensive adjustments to deal with their Tim & Tony problems (doubling, trapping, and showing multiple defensive schemes [example is faking doubles/traps sometimes] throwing off their timing. After just a few possesions in which a crowd-energized Laker team scored and the Spurs went scoreless, the Spurs quickly looked like an older team who ran full speed into a wall. On the road, the crowd getting fully behind the other team, they had nothing to energize them. The wear caught up with them and the Lakers kept on the pressure. In summary... the Spurs underachieved allowing the Lakers to overachieve.
From about 5:40 left in the third to the end of the game, the Spurs only score 20 points... total. The Lakers, during that same time scored 44. Twenty of those came within the 5:40 to end the third. Those are energy numbers. Two teams in the NBA Final Four just don't build and lose 20 point leads due to strategy.
All of that said, I think the Lakers have more to worry about than the Spurs. L.A. seems to get better bench production in general but the bench usually doesn't travel well. The Spurs aren't going to have as much energy to start out future games, but they also shouldn't run out like they did this one. It looked to me like the Spurs had the advantage when both teams were playing at their best. Kenny Smith says a bunch of things but he mentioned at some point last year: "If the final score is above 7 points, the fault lies with the players' energy. If it's 7 or below, the fault lies with the coach." Though the final score was less, the 20 point swings seem to speak exactly to this sentiment.
A couple other Kenny Smith-ism that though worded the exact same way, almost always prove relevant:
"It's not a series until one team loses a home game."
"It's not a series until one team faces an elimination game."
Ummm. Wow. I didn't necessarily expect the Lakers to lose this one but I did think it would be close.
Don't forget that last round 3 of the 4 series' went up 2-0 and everyone seemed to count the visiting team out. All of them went to 2-2. Until the Lakers win one in San Antonio, I don't think they warrant the hype yet.
One big thing they have for them is the short turnaround. Sunday is going to be big.
wow is right. these playoffs are crazy.
almost as crazy as my new theory:
there has been an awakening in the nba fan base and now the home court advantage is bigger than ever because these people are going absolutely apeshit at every home game.
i know people have always acted nuts at home games, but is it getting crazier? i dunno, what do you guys think?
I think TV ratings are going up a bit, but i don't think fans are rowdier than they used to be. I suppose some fans are, because their teams have recently come out the cellar. Idk, that'd just how it seems to me. Like the fans have always gone crazy during the playoffs and still are:)
Though maybe fans do seem a bit more civil. There used to always be a couple series were fans would start chucking their drinks at the visiting bench and stuff like that. I remember commantors yelling "Ow!" during games cause they would get hit by something.
I had myself convinced before game 5 that the Spurs were going to make it a 7 game series...
Playoffs Head to Head
Series Wins:
Phil-4
Pop-1
Im ashamed to say, i tivod the last game, then never got interested enough to watch it. Crazy, considering all the first round games i watched. I don't know, SAS just kinda seemed cooked to me.
I am glad patrick made the "if east wins..living fish" bet. It solidifys who i should be cheering for, lets me care about the final outcome. So the finals will be a hoot. Boston better make it interesting.
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