I know everyone knows this already, but it still needs to be said. The home team is 20-1 in round 2 this year. That is one of the craziest thing i have ever heard. The detroit series had a clear favorite (well, less clear without Billups playing, but still), but in all the other series, before they started, i was not really sure who to pick as the winner, i think i predicted them all as 7 game series.
So, in the 3 series were the teams are relatively well matched, it seems like the only thing that throws off the parity is homecourt. And the games usually aren't event that close. It kinda baffles me. I know home court is big, but i never thoguht it was this big. Like, what is the deal? Why is everyone brick, brick, brick on the road? And swish, swish, swish at home?
Is confidence really that dependent upon homecourt?
4 comments:
Yes. And No.
Home court is obviously an advantage. Always has been, always will be. There’s just no doubt about it.
It’s just more comfortable.
First, away from the game itself, you get (literally) home cookin’, your own bed, own couch, own pantry, own family. Little things but definitely things the home team doesn’t think about that the visiting team probably does. I don’t know how many here have traveled for work? I haven’t done it extensively but definitely have experienced it and can contest that it’s just not very fun after a while (especially when alone or with people you don’t particularly enjoy). Granted, these guys have 20+ people that travel together so they’ve got decent odds of finding someone they like spending time with but even then… it’s just not home. And at this point in the season, they’ve been traveling 2-4 times per week since Halloween. I’m sure it’s exhausting.
Second, facilities. Everything about the visiting experience in an arena is designed to remind you that you’re not at home. The locker rooms suck, you can’t drive your own Porsche (instead your take a bus with your other millionaire teammates), and your practice facilities aren’t as good. Once the game starts, you’ve got the music guy playing rhythmic rap for the home team’s offensive possessions and arrhythmic banjo music for the visiting offensive possessions.
Finally, the crowd. Before I get to the players, let me say that the refereeing almost always favors the home team and I’m convinced they get caught up in the excitement of the crowd. I don’t think it’s conscious but I know it happens. I’ve seen it too many times. I’d think this alone is the most demoralizing thing that team has to overcome. When, as a visiting team, you already know you’re fighting an uphill battle and then the impartial officials make 3-7 calls that start favoring the home team… you almost convince yourself that they’re out to get you (I know it gets me most as a fan). Even without the bad calls, I still believe the crowd has to be energizing for the home team which can suck the energy out of an away crew. I don’t care how professional or you are, it’s going to affect you a little at least.
Nba.com had some nice data (through 2005) that shows the obvious advantage Home teams have (maybe it’s just because they’re better most of the time too though?):
http://www.nba.com/history/records/alltime_team_playoff_wl.html
that I compiled into a SS with hopes of summarizing a little better (it was nice to see the cream rise to the top too):
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pMP-TZSjHcRINrmal5krTcQ
After all of that “Yes” support… No. This season is definitely not normal. It shouldn’t be this lopsided. So why? Is it random like SVG alluded to? Equating the historical stats, through 21 games, the home record should be about 14 – 7. That would be 6 games that have been deviations. That’s a pattern, not an anomaly. Problem is, I don’t really have an answer. The closest I can come is probably an overgeneralization. I just haven’t seen sustained defensive energy on the road (obvious exception is the Pistons but I’m really only referring to the other 3 series’). That seems like the biggest problem for the West (and for the Spurs and Hornets especially). Teams who win big games get big stops in the waning minutes, that’s really only been happening for the home teams. Why is that different this season than others though? Usually after writing this much, I’ve convinced myself of a theory or two. I gots nothin’ definitive. Though there is one more thing I haven’t seen much of… killer instinct.
(Even Lebron hasn’t done what I expected from him. After last season, I was convinced he’d be looked at as one of the greatest big game finishers of my lifetime. Even this regular season, after a little Kobe-coaching during the summer, he stepped up his defensive energy and had me convinced he’s the best player in the NBA. I’d’ve trade Kobe for him any day of the week but now… I’m not so sure. I’ve only seen flashes of it but if he pulls through tonight and, more importantly, on Sunday… )
The key to winning on the road, in the playoffs, I believe, is making the crowd work for you. In theory, I like SVG’s approach that a true competitor doesn’t care where he plays but it’s simply unrealistic for 95% (or more?) of NBA players. Now, I’m not the biggest Mark Jackson advocate (don’t particularly dislike him either, I just don’t know why everyone is pushing for him to be a head coach… maybe he’ll be a good leader/motivator, but I haven’t heard anything remarkable from him as far as strategy goes) but I do think he understands perfectly what I mean by making it work for you. Last night, he said that he enjoys making 20,000 screaming fans ‘sit down and shut the fuck up’ (not quite those words). That, is what a true competitor wants too. They want to prove to the world that they can, they will, and here it comes. Kobe has it, Manu has it, even Timmy does it sometimes. After that big shot, you can see them fighting the inner satisfaction from creeping too much into a smug mug. Chris Paul had it for a while last night but he couldn’t seem to close the 8-10 point gap (which quickly exploded due to Gyrobili).
Agreed. The noise definitely has to be a factor. I know that it effects other fans. The one NBA playoff game I went to was abso-frickly bananas. It was INTENSE the entire 48 minutes. Even Amanda got into the game and she hates basketball. Even though the Rockets lost it was still a really, really fun game just to experience.
Some of that has to transfer to the players. Plus, on the road when you make a big play (dunk or blocked shot) the crowd goes silent. Humans are still part animal and we need positive reinforcement from time to time. So I'm sure hearing a deafening crowd behind you when you succeed just makes you want to do better. And when you hear nothing after a big play you kind of feel let down.
Props for the super thorough response. Very nice spreadsheet too. Honestly, that last one, with predictions, is a bit confusing to me.
Skipping all of the homecourt stuff (i can't think of anything to add after all you two covered). I think Boston figured out exactly what Lebron likes to get on offense and gave him everything else. They shoudl a very telling stat during the last game. They should lebrons makes/attemps, percentage, for 4 different distance groups.
The groupings were something like 0-6 feet, 7-12 feet, 13-18 feet, 19+. Obviously most his points have been right at the rim. Almost all his other points were 3 pointers. He barely had any points at all in the two midrange groups. I think, Kobe is waaay better than Lebron at this time in their respective careers. I considered Kobe better alrteady, but after each of their last series, to me the gap between them seemed small, and now it seems considerably larger.
Yeah - sorry about the other spreadsheet. Just as an FYI - I finally added some description a couple days ago in the "So Called Experts" entry. Don't know if it'll make it more clear or not though.
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