Tom didn't like my % crunch, so I'm going to display the upcoming schedules a different way.
I'll group the opponents by winning %, road games and east teams.
If you have a better way of determining difficulty of schedule, let me know (Tom).
Look inside to see how it faired.
(Good thing I kept those Excel sheets)
New Rankings
Easiest to Hardest
Lakers
Houston
Dallas
San Antonio
Pheonix
Utah
New Orleans
Keep that order in mind. It could be the playoff rankings =)
Except that Utah would go third cause the seeding formula is still messed up (plug in Jimi rant here)
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18 comments:
Pheonix:
Opponents with winning %
> .650 - 9 (4 road, 4 east, 1 b2b)
> .550 - 8 (3 road, 0 east, 1 b2b)
> .450 - 4 (2 road, 0 east, 0 b2b)
> crap - 8 (5 road, 1 east, 3 b2b)
Lakers:
Opponents with winning %
> .650 - 7 (3 road, 0 east, 2 b2b)
> .550 - 4 (3 road, 0 east, 1 b2b)
> .450 - 10 (4 road, 2 east, 1 b2b)
> crap - 9 (3 road, 3 east, 2 b2b)
Dallas:
Opponents with winning %
> .650 - 9 (5 road, 1 east, 0 b2b)
> .550 - 6 (3 road, 0 east, 1 b2b)
> .450 - 2 (1 road, 0 east, 1 b2b)
> crap - 14 (5 road, 6 east, 3 b2b)
Houston:
Opponents with winning %
> .650 - 9 (5 road, 1 east, 3 b2b)
> .550 - 4 (3 road, 0 east, 1 b2b)
> .450 - 4 (2 road, 1 east, 0 b2b)
> crap - 12 (2 road, 6 east, 1 b2b)
San Antonio:
Opponents with winning %
> .650 - 9 (5 road, 2 east, 0 b2b)
> .550 - 7 (3 road, 1 east, 2 b2b)
> .450 - 3 (2 road, 0 east, 1 b2b)
> crap - 11 (5 road, 7 east, 2 b2b)
New Orleans:
Opponents with winning %
> .650 - 10 (5 road, 3 east, 2 b2b)
> .550 - 7 (2 road, 1 east, 0 b2b)
> .450 - 5 (4 road, 4 east, 1 b2b)
> crap - 9 (4 road, 6 east, 4 b2b)
Utah:
Opponents with winning %
> .650 - 10 (6 road, 2 east, 1 b2b)
> .550 - 4 (0 road, 0 east, 1 b2b)
> .450 - 4 (0 road, 2 east, 1 b2b)
> crap - 13 (7 road, 5 east, 3 b2b)
Ok, so based upon that data, what do you the rankings should be?
I'd put them like this:
Hardest to easiest
New Orleans
Utah
Pheonix
San Antonio
Dallas
Houston
Lakers
Lakers' schedule looks really easy in this light. Pheonix's is still hard, but not as hard as NO. Utah has a lot of hard road games, but a lot of cake games too.
shasher, i think you are good at gathering and examining data.
i agree with your assessment, and that's why i've got NOH and PHX so low in my predictions and DAL and LAL so high. (i still think NOH or PHX will win it all)
even though NOH i think has the hardest remaining schedule (and you apparently agree), you still predict them finishing w the best record. do you really think they're that much better than everyone else? sound is one thing, but...
we're nerds.
go UTAH!
Yea, actually I made that prediction before looking at the difficulty of schedule. After seeing this, I think it very likely that the Lakers will end up with the best schedule. They got a lot better with Pau, Banum is gonna come back and their schedule is relatively easy.
awww, i'm glad i made you do everything again:) but, i didn't dislike the last one, i was just teasing. Though, i admit this one is a lot more interesting.
I put NOH at the top two, and really i think alst night was the first game i watched them play (most fo the way through). For me that was just kinda of a educated guess. Cause they seem to be healthy and not very streaky. Each team had some slight reason for em not to put them at the top.
DAllas has a new PG, will have adjustment period.
PHoenix, the same, except a center.
SAS is getting everyone healthy. I still think they will rock and roll in the playoffs. But i feel more like they will hit their stride in the playofffs, instead of going hardcore to have the best record at the end of the season.
LAL has two injured stars. Though, Kobe had another redicolous dunk last night, and i think it was with the injured hand again. So, he seems alright when watching him.
Utah, seems like, loses too many games to bad teams.
And Houston, well i got nothing on them, only that ending with the best record would be a hell of a surprise.
So, by process of elimination i was left with NOH. I did't look at schedules until after my ranks, So that wasn't a part of my decision at all.
As for me having a better system to rank scheules: Honestly, i love stats, but schedule difficulties have never interested me much. I have just always felt that everyone's scheules are about the same difficulty as everyone else in their conference. I know that changes if you compare a week to a week. or a month to a month, or a even a 2nd half of a season to another 2nd half. Still though, i'm just not a schedule difficulty junkie like ya'll:D
But i love yous are, gives me stuff to consider I normally don't. I admit, yous got me slightly curious at how easy DET's schedule is, but i can't be bothered to count so many things one unit at a time.
and one random FYI i jsut heard-- PHX is 5-12 against the West teams currently seeded in playoff spots. I still don't see them in the Finals, so i'm curious what about them makes yous think PHX is a favorite to win it all.
Agreed, the suns don't really stand a chance. I'll do Det and Bos tomorrow.
i love it. most of this crap i think i agree with, but...
i think you dudes are both nuts if you don't think phx has a chance.
of course, there's a HUGE (350lb) IF involved, but that's the case with all of these contenders.
except SAS.
i think Tom's take on SAS is perfect.
they're the only ones that will surprise me if they're not in the West Finals (although NOH,LAL, HOU, DAL, PHX, UTA i think all have a fighters chance at em)
i can't wait to see BOS and DET! get to work shasher
Alright, here is Detroit
Opponents with winning %
> .650 - 5 (2 road, 1 east, 2 b2b)
> .550 - 8 (5 road, 5 east, 3 b2b)
> .450 - 2 (1 road, 2 east, 0 b2b)
> crap - 13 (5 road, 10 east, 2 b2b)
Boston:
Opponents with winning %
> .650 - 6 (3 road, 1 east, 0 b2b)
> .550 - 4 (2 road, 0 east, 1 b2b)
> .450 - 2 (2 road, 1 east, 1 b2b)
> crap - 16 (9 road, 15 east, 5 b2b)
That Detriot schedule is only a little easier than the Lakers, but comeon Boston! Seriously, who made this junk.
I'm calling out conspiracy on the NBA in favor of the Cs. Their record means nothing.
I stated a bit more subtly than 'don't have a chance.' I don't think PHX "is a favorite to win it all."
That IF factor is huge, true that. And once i see how their trade pans out more, i may be singing a different tune. I don't think their chances of gtting to the Fianls is way less then some of their rivals. But, i think Shaq will have to be Shaq of old for PHX to get there.
I agree with what i heard from some of the media this season. PHX didn't seem to have that collective mentality that championship teams seem to almost always have. I'm am not sure what exaclty that collective mentality is, but it involves things like an insatiable hunger to win and team harmony. (i never doubted this aspect of Nash's motivation, jsut the team as a whole).
Shaq is a tremendous team leader, and i do believe he could help bring that hunger and team unity to PHX.
So, given all this. I think PHX has a fair chance. But, when it gets down to it, i don't see them taking 4 games from LAL or SAS, though mainly LAL. I just feel like they have PHX's number.
God i always intend to make short post, quick to the point. I have no ability to do that i guess. I thought i was jsut saying a couple quick thoughts. Though, tiny columns are a part of it.
I thought Boston would have a harder schedule then that, even if they are in the East. Seemed like they already played all their easy games. Oh well.
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