If you guys are interested Jake, Patrick and I are doing an NBA playoff bracket.
Just send me your picks (after the match ups are set) for each series and then for the finals how many games it will go.
Points will be awarded as follows:
First round winner picked = 1pt (per series)
Second round winner picked = 2pts (per series)
Conference Finals winner picked = 4pts (per series)
Finals winner picked = 8pts
If two people end up with the same points at the end we'll use the number of games you said the finals will go as the tiebreaker.
Good luck!
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21 comments:
I'm down. A couple questions:
1- Any reason we shouldn't post here (advantage to those posting later?)?
2- This is NCAA style, no updating brackets after each round right?
Quick/Easy reference:
http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html
1v8 plays 4v5
3v6 plays 2v7
The matchups (bracket ordered):
EAST
Cavs v Pistons
Hawks v Heat
Magic v Sixers
Celtics v Bulls
WEST
Lakers v Jazz
Blazers v Rockets
Spurs v Mavs
Nuggets v Hornets
i was thinking about this, and its somewhat likely that multiple people will pick the home team in every matchup. should we force people to choose at least one road team?
Not a bad point. I’m always hesitant to make a rule that would make someone who is confident in their assessment choose a path they normally wouldn’t. That being said, I’m far from confident this year in a number of match ups so I’ll support the proposed measure.
Question: Would you require a road prediction in at least the 1st round, only the 1st round, or would one in the 2nd round count (i.e. if someone thought all 1st round match ups would be home triumphs but in the 2nd round a road team would win)? If implemented, I’d personally pick one in the first round but just thought it should be clarified.
so, anyone want to try and predict the playoffs? just kidding, but you guys have me pretty confused.
Why not just post picks here? That way we can see watch a long.
required underdog pick? nuts to that. but i'm game if y'all want.
Yea, i don't think i like the idea either. But we are gonna have to make sure people don't choose the same. Jake and I were already identical.
just saw Jimi's email (they block gmail & hotmail where I work)... makes more sense now.
Jimi- is there a 'cutoff' time when you're going to lock out changes?
I still like picking the # of games too though (kind of a confidence indicator) so here's what I got down at work:
Playoff Predictions
Cavs, 5
Hawks, 7
Magic, 5+
Celtics, 5+
Cavs, 5+
Celtics, 6+
Cavs, 6+
Lakers, 6
Blazers, 7
Mavs, 6+
Nuggets, 6+
Lakers, 7
Mavs, 6+
Lakers, 6
Champs: Lakers, 6
Finals MVP: KB
Last year I felt reasonably confident in my picks & they went pretty well… this year, I'm just dunno. No confidence at all in my West bracket. I don’t have a strong feel for dominance (ahem… defense) in the West. For some reason, I just can’t buy into the Nuggets or Spurs (2 & 3). In most cases where I thought it was a toss up (Hawks/Heat, Blazers/Rockets, CPaul(&defense) & the legends (Dunkeravich)… but so be it. Finally, I truly believe POR has a chance to take LAL. I was really hoping they'd end up in 3rd so they had one additional chance to lose before facing the Lakers. Some teams just match up right & they give the Lakers fits. It's a big if but if KG is healthy come ECFinals, I think the Celtics could pull it out (they'd have to return to their defense of last year though).
Portland would event be my fun-team-to-root-for this year (like UTA & NOH the past 2 yrs) if the didn't worry me so much.
On a side note, anyone else a little confused by oden's hair? There are grooves but they're barely noticeable. Are these on purpose or are is this was Battier's hair would look like if he didn't have the bald man strakes used for super efficient cooling (like a testarosa)?
Still stuck on Portland... they're so STACKED (compared to LAL):
PG - Blake/Serg/Bayless vs Fish/Farm/Brown
SG - Roy/Rudy/Webster vs Kobe/Vujacic
SF - Outlaw/Batum vs Odom/Ariza/Walton
PF - Aldridge/Frye vs Gasol/Powell
C - Oden/Pryzbilla vs Bynum/Mbenga
(btw - I like to think my above picks are unofficial until Sat. morning; subject to change)
great another unknown... garnett's likely out for the postseason; do they get past orlando without him?
East
Clev-6
Mia-7
Orl-6
Cel-6
Cle-5
Bos-7
Cle-6
West
Lal-5
Hou-7
Sas-7
Den-7
LAl-6
Den-6
Lal-5
Finals
Cle-7
I wish the first round east match ups were different. I think Celtics and 78ers would be a seven game series. And, of course, i want det vs Orl. Orlando is the one team we always beat:D.
I have been picking Lal to win it all all season. But, all a sudden, i just got this feeling, that Cleveland is gonna steal it.
Chauncey has a fair chance to get to the western conference finals. That would be 7 CFs in a row, i believe:D Versus Hornets depends on if Peja can shoot well that series, he been shooting bad this year. And Denver is too athletic (and better) for a spurs team without Manu, i think.
i think boston does get past orlando cause of superior defense. Orlando is still a threepoint shooting team with a juggernaut above the rim.
I think Bos should be able to cover those threes while marginally containing Howard with perkins and...um, who else again? Not Big Baby is it?
Hmmm, so you think Dallas would take Denver in 6? I think den would kinda dominate that series. With dallas stealing a couple. Are there any injuries on those teams?
Yeah, you could definitely be right Tom. Billups is the only reliable known quantity for me on that team.
So many of the matchups come down to Coaching, Defense, & Home Court for me. The biggest x-factor being health. I tried to find the old thread about coaches but couldn’t (just me or does the search function kinda suck?). Here are the ones I’m still struggling with (so may swap tonight/tomorrow):
Hawks/Heat
They’re pretty similar defensively and I’d give a slight edge to Hawks on the coaching front (if only due to last year’s 7-game experience). So the obvious question is whether D.Wade will single-handedly win this series right? No doubt that it’s possible; hell, he could avg 20 free throws a game for all I know, but will he? In the end, I just think the value of experience & home court give the Hawks a game 7 win at home. If I see too many Wade highlights tonight though, I may be swayed – he’s incredible. And this was the easiest decision for me (of the tossups).
Celtics/Magic
The new addition… I’d done my predictions under the impression that Garnett would only be 60-70% anyhow. I don’t think I’m going to change anything except the number of games. Instead of 6+, I’d go to 7-. Not a drastic change, I just think it’s more likely to go 7 than before (& don’t think Orlando can win a game 7 in Boston).
Rockets/Blazers
This one definitely came down to home court for me. Both coaches are very good though I’d give the edge to Adelman. I’m not sure either would have been as successful coaching the other team but that just means they’re a good fit where they’re at. They’re both very good defensive teams too. If Adelman were to have a change of heart & really start feeding Yao in the post with more consistency, I’d give them the edge. At the end of the game, who’s the Rocket’s scorer? If it’s been Yao, I may switch my pick. The few games I’ve seen though, they give it Artest… and if you’re putting your faith in Artest well, that’s just too much for me to deal with. The Blazers have been smoking hot going into the playoffs and that means quite a bit. It’s a shame that this matchup had to be in the first round…
Spurs/Mavs
Obviously the Mavs are my ‘light horse’. This was the most difficult call for me & is the most likely to change I make if I make one at all… it’s sooo difficult for me to ever bet against the Spurs unless it’s a sure thing and this is far from a sure thing. Since the ’00-’01 season, the only teams to knock the Spurs out of the playoffs have been the Lakers (4 times) and the Mavs (once). They were coached by Avery though & the Little General may have had some insight into Pop’s schemes that few people can mimic. Which brings me to the main reason I’ve, thus far, picked the Mavs this year: Carlisle. I really like him as a coach & the Mavs have progressively improved all season. I don't necessarily think he has to outcoach Pop (which I'm not prepared to wage he could do) but I do believe he is intelligent enough to put together a gameplan that focuses on the Spurs' current weaknesses. They’re still pretty poor on the road (which is no good in this matchup when they’ve surrendered home court) but they’ve had some pretty impressive wins over the last month of the season. The Spurs, on the other hand, since March 1st, have a 5-6 record against teams with a record better than .500 (note that two of those wins game in the last week). They just don’t look dominant & are going to be heavily dependent on Tony Parker (another very good player that I wouldn’t want to have to hand over the keys to). Yes they’ve got the best power forward in league history but I’m pretty sure he’s hobbled in some way. He may be able to tough it out but only he & Pop know for sure -- That health x-factor. Even if the Spurs do make it past the Mavs, I’m not sure they can beat Denver. Again, this is the most likely place I’ll change… not sure I can bring myself to actually log a vote of ‘no confidence’ against the Spurs.
Nuggets/Hornets
This one was almost entirely an injuries pick for me. How do you pick a team w/ Peja's back & Chandler's ankle? I love that the Hornets play defense & really love CPaul's intensity but don't think they have the necessary personnel/health to pull out a series win.
Nuggets/(Spurs or Mavs)
Similar to my main reason for liking the Mavs, my main point of contention w/ the Nuggets is the coach, George Karl. He did take the Sonics to the Finals in the 90s but why did it take Billups to get them to play defense? You can’t blame it on AI, they were terrible defensively even before AI got there. If they still had Camby, they’d be more likely to get my vote. As of now… I’m not sure. They’re still extremely talented but not sure they’re defensively tough… though the Mavs aren’t either. The only reason I did 6 was home court; I didn’t think they could win a 7th game in Denver.
Maybe it’s like psychotherapy; sometimes just writing things out helps me to work it out in my head :]
Funny you mention the Cavs gut feeling. They've been my pick for the past 2 months but when it came down to making it final pick, even though the Cavs have looked fantastic & the Lakers are definitely not playing at the level they did in Dec & Jan., I just couldn't bring myself to predict another Finals kick-in-the-nuts.
why post your picks here?
jimi made that shared google doc, and it already has several ppls brackets on there...
I was so hesitant on a number of my picks that I wanted to make sure I was finished before posting them to the spreadsheet.
Besides, you can't have any dialog in a spreadsheet & I needed to discuss.
i love your analysis jer, and on most points, i have to agree.
i have a really hard time voting against the spurs (i've made that mistake too many times in the last few years) but with Manu gone and no home court advantage, i think the lakers are going to smash them. however, i'm not as confident as tom that Den is really that good. as you noted, why did it take chauncey to make them play D? seems suspect.
having said that, SA looks terrible lately (relative to earlier in the season) and Den is pretty hot right now, so this may be the year that i 'shoulda voted against the spurs'. we'll see.
for that matter, its the same with the mavs for me. i see the mavs and Den as about equal right now. jason terry has been killing it lately, and josh howard is finally healthy, so they certainly have a fighters chance, but it's just so hard for me to accept that this mavs team that looked so crappy just a few months ago will be able to hang with pop/timmy/tony.
as for the (L)East, i can see it going either way really. i think the biggest thing for me here is that CLE has homecourt and they have been so solid in CLE this year. without homecourt, i'd be skeptical.
and though portland matches up very well with the lakers, i don't think it's reasonable to believe that they can win a 7game series against THIS lakers team when LA has homecourt.
which brings me to the finals.
its a tough call. i think Bron may freak out and have an historic playoffs, murdering everyone involved.
exept kobe.
this year, i've watched a lot of lakers (as i'm sure everyone has, since the lakers are on tv way more than any other team) and i am so scared of kobe this year, i can't even describe my fear in words. so, pretend that you can see me right now, and that i look VERY scared.
kobe wins it all. i dont think he can be stopped now that he has a bad ass coach AND a bad ass team. dude is freaking scary.
well, I've reluctantly picked against the spurs in round 1 - just banking that the DAL vets are hungrier than the Spurs. I'll probably change it again after I have a nightmare of Timmy dunking dampier's head after tearing it off.
I wish i'd followed denver a little closer - I need to know what's motivating them. Do they really think they can win a title or are they just playing really well. If I'd picked the Spurs in rnd 1, they'd take DEN but I don't think DAL can do it.
"why post your picks here?"
One, i did this before i saw the goole doc. Two, like i said already, so we can discuss basketball.
I'm starting to question my pick of spurs over dallas. Oh well, i still don't think either of them can beat nuggets.
It is not that i am confident that denver is "really that good". I am jsut confident that dallas and spurs are really that bad. If Denver makes it to Lal, i think they will get completely destroyed, 4 or 5 games.
I gave heat the slight edge over hawks for the simple reason that DWade will be playing, probably, 43+ minutes a game.
I am not going to bother with the 5 dollar paypal thing. I've never used paypal before. I'll just follow along old school. It's about the same to me; don't worry:D
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FYI, i think we should attempt like last year, and make a thread for each series. I'll put some or all of Saturday's games up on tomorrow(sat.)
Sorry, I made a post here and then never looked at it again.
It was more to get the people on Basketbloggers to join the bracket and I never meant to keep track of it here.
Google Docs seems much easier to me and we can involve people that aren't part of Basketbloggers.
Tom if you want you can mail me a check for $5 if you aren't hip to the 21st century. I've got your picks down here so I can easily add them to the Google doc if you still want to get in.
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