The Rockets’ win Sunday gave them a half-game lead over San Antonio in the race for the Southwest Division title. The two rivals’ remaining games:
Rockets (10)
Tuesday at Utah; Saturday vs. L.A. Clippers; April 1 at Phoenix; April 3 at L.A. Lakers; April 5 vs. Portland; April 7 vs. Orlando; April 9 at Sacramento; April 10 at Golden State; April 13 vs. New Orleans; April 15 at Dallas.
Opponents’ combined record: 332-321 (.508)
Spurs (13)
Tuesday vs. Golden State; Wednesday at Atlanta; Friday vs. L.A. Clippers; Sunday at New Orleans; March 31 vs. Oklahoma City; April 3 at Indiana; April 5 at Cleveland; April 7 at Oklahoma City; April 8 vs. Portland; April 10 vs. Utah; April 12 at Sacramento; April 13 at Golden State; April 15 vs. New Orleans.
Opponents’ combined record: 335-364 (.479)
5 comments:
That's a great question... I know the Rockets have been playing very well & the Spurs have been sucking it up.
After looking at the schedules, San Antonio has at least one major advantage. Though the Rockets are statistically ahead (due to two more wins), they're one game worse in the loss column.
Considering that the Spurs are strong on the road and the Rockets aren't (though they're very strong at home) my first inclination would be to think that the Spurs will finish one game ahead:
Spurs 55-27
Rockets 54-28
That assumes each team will win those they're supposed to and split the ones that are either on the road against a decent opponent or at home against a very good one.
They're close enough to easily imagine a tie. Assuming they haven't changed since '07 (only article I could find), the tiebreakers are:
(1) Head-to-head
(2) Division record (if the teams are in the same division)
(3) Conference record
(4) Record vs. Playoff teams, own conference
(5) Record vs. Playoff teams, other conference
(6) Net points, all games
They're tied head-to-head. SAN is ahead by 1 gm in the division & HOU is ahead by 1 gm in the conference. It's possible that it could go down to #4 (which I found no reliable source of info for without manually counting). That would be interesting (anyone want to do the manual count?).
In the end, my gut says that the Rockets will have the opportunity to take them outright. The Spurs just haven't looked sharp as of late and have very little time to turn it around. It is certainly possible but I think Pop believes very much that his team can win on the road so I don't think he'll put undo strain on them to beat out Houston. With the other teams nipping at their heels (NOH, DEN, UTA, POR), they could fall a few spots if they finish a weak 7-6.
My final prediction after the 2 aforementioned waffles: tie (w/ HOU winning out w/ the Conf. record).
So... a question for Houston die-hards: as it stands right now, HOU(2) is matched up w/ UTA(7). In all honesty, does that bring you any anxiety? I mean... I think the Rockets are the better team but not by a huge margin. Is there any part of you that's rooting against the three-match or are you confident enough to want them for revenge sake?
i think this is a difficult question to answer. it's nice to have the luxury of reading jer's post before i type anything:)
i think san antonio has some obvious advantages here. i just don't know if it will be enough..
1.timmy looks great. if him and tony stay healthy, i think they have a fighting chance at most opponents
2.they match up pretty well in the sense that SA's best defender (tim) is going to be guarding HOU's best scorer (yao), and HOU's best defender(s) (shane/ron) are NOT going to be guarding SA's best scorer(s)(tim/tony)
3.pop has a metric shitton of experience with this EXACT situation
having said that, i think HOU's D is going to force timmy and tony to carry the spurs offensively (roger can only do so much) and i think 4 of 7 may be too much to ask of them right now.
it seems like HOU is getting better as SA is getting worse. i can only assume that trend is going to continue through the last few weeks.
Wow, if it went to #4 that would be awesome.
I do have anxiety of playing against Utah. I mean, this isn't some meaningless streak from 10 years ago. These same guys have lost two years in a row. I think that will have an affect on them, and probably not a good one.
Thing is though, I wouldn't want them to drop any slots though. That race down there is so tight, we could end up playing any of them. In fact, we could end up being one of them.
holy crap... you guys probably already knew but HOU & UTA are on TNT tonight... not used to seeing bball on Tuesday.
GO ROCKETS!
I just watched the game & heard Doug Collins talking about an article he read concerning tie breakers... this seems like the most likely candidate:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090323
Look Hollinger did the calculations for us.
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