Monday, March 16, 2009

Can anyone really beat the Lakers?

After watching the Lakers demolish everyone over the last few weeks, I'm not sure we need a power rankings or a standings or really any more games. they should just call this one early and give em the rings. They always say that getting hot at this time of year is really huge, and I think this season is going to be a perfect barometer for that adage.

Kobe is possessed. I hate to bet against some of these other teams; I really think there are more solid teams this year than there have been in a while. But do any of em look as good as LA right now?

Of course, as always, injuries are a huge part of this.

KG and Manu are the big stories here for me. Unless they get healthy 3 weeks ago and start getting into rythm, UTA, HOU, and CLE may be the only legit contenders left with enough depth to compete. And to be honest, I see all of these teams as underdogs. As much as I like these other teams, LA looks like they are in a league of their own to me right now.

jer? gonna take the bait? heh

6 comments:

dullstone said...

I think clev has an outside chance; but, they are not near the complete team LA is. I don't think anyone in the west has a chance. If boston can play like they did when they had garnett, they got an outside chance too.

Did you hear Carl Landry got shot in the lower leg? Damn!

Patrick said...

Son of a bitch!

jake said...

Damn!

Son of a bitch!

jeremy said...

WTF?!?

Good news is that the gunshot wound sounds very minor (surface wound to calf). Bad news is that he had a dislocated finger too; I'd think this is as much in play as the gunshot wound as far as estimated time for recovery?

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6316071.html

Ok... I repeat: WTF?!?

His SUV was attacked by a CIVIC?!? It also sounds like he deserted the girl?

(more on Lakers tomorrow)

jeremy said...

I’m not going to deny the strength of the Lakers, or even the fact that they should probably be considered the favorite in any series matchup, but they’re definitely flawed. They’ve addressed a little of the ‘toughness’ problem that concerned me last year (and ended up being the strongest contributor to their Finals demise) but other things have surfaced.

One of the Lakers’ biggest strengths last year was their bench. Their performance has significantly dropped. Farmar, Vujacic, & Walton have all contributed to bench play with porous defense, more turnovers, fewer points, and a much lower 3 pt % across the board. Before Bynum’s injury & Radman’s trade to the Bobcats, because Odom and Ariza were coming off the bench, it wasn’t as noticeable.

This performance hole causes two main areas of concern. One – the successful integration of (2) contrasting styles caused many teams to expend extra energy on the court and off the court (extra prep time – from separate gym techniques to extra tape time). This was a huge advantage, it was like playing and preparing for two teams at once. If teams don’t have to fight to keep up w/ the Laker bench, they’ll have a much easier time focusing their strategy on starters. Two – it kept the Laker starters relatively fresh. Phil’s confidence allowed him to sit key players much of the regular season last year. The only time I believe I saw fatigue in them last year was Kobe in the Finals. He didn’t seem to have any legs whatsoever. No quick first step and less elevation (which affected his jump shot & rebounding). I can only guess that it was because he overexerted himself after Bynum went down. This year, every starter has had to expend more energy. I worry that it will show if they have to play another physical series.

Another major concern is going to be the late integration of Bynum into the lineup. Attempting something like that can really mess with a team’s cohesiveness. Missed defensive assignments and forced, disjointed offense, from poorly chosen, late-clock, shots to passing mistakes leading to a high number of turnovers (and easy points by opposition), flow/chemistry will take a time, just how much is unknown. Pop has voiced similar concern with getting Ginobili back too late in the season. Obviously the positives of getting players like Bynum & Ginobili back outweigh the risks but that doesn’t change the fact that the risks exist (especially in the 1st round).

Which leads me to, what I believe, is probably the scariest potential matchup for the Lakers: Portland. I do believe that other teams do pose real potential threat (in order to LAL: POR, CLE, BOS, SAN/HOU, NOH). Boston & Cleveland obviously have fantastic defense and all-round effective offenses. If San Antonio or Houston is peaking going in, they can be just as powerful as CLE/BOS. Both have potential to play fantastic on both ends. I haven’t watched much of either but I feel like SAN has work to do on the D end and HOU has yet to hit their offensive stride. NOH is a long shot but I feel like if everything falls their way, it’s possible. None of them have the ability to take the Lakers out of their game as much as do the Blazers though. Now, I haven’t seen tonight’s game w/ Cleveland yet so they could make this argument look silly if LeBron handled them with ease but the best analogy I can offer is the Warriors / Mavericks matchup a couple years back. Dallas was talented enough to go all the way (I still believe they were robbed of a championship the year before when D.Wade shot an insane number of free throws in the 3 close games the Heat won (by 2pts, 1 pt, & 3 pts he got 18, 25, 21 free throws respectively – I digress…)) but the Warriors (A) matched up well & (B) were able to bait the Mavs into running with them (and ignoring defensive focus). I don’t know how to explain it but I think it’s a pride thing. It’s almost as if focusing on defense is admitting that the other team is superior offensively. It’s a difficult thing to admit to if you’re as good as some of these guys are (and if you haven’t had to admit it to any other opponent). It may be easier to admit if the average age is say 32 than if the average age of your team is 26-27. Problem is… if you’re playing a bunch of 23 yr olds, you gonna get beat and it’s because you were too prideful (to slow it down and focus on defense). Portland has the potential to do the same two things if they play the Lakers… especially if they were to meet in the first round…and the Lakers are adjusting to Bynum’s return. They scare me; I just hope they match up with another team in round 1.

Last year, I didn’t expect them to fair as well in the playoffs as they did. This year, favorites or not, the Lakers are beatable. Whether their Achilles could end up being arrogance, fatigue, or a bench that can’t hold their own, the right team can certainly take 4 games from them.

jeremy said...

I just heard that Bynum won't even start practicing until around the time the playoffs start.

Another important point: the only team that LAL may have to surrender home court advantage to is Cleveland. Not only are they leading the Lakers in overall record, they've only lost one game at home all season. Granted, it was to the Lakers, but if Cleveland ends the season with the best overall record, I'd say they should be the favorites in a 7-game series w/ the Lakers.