That's right! I been leaning more and more this way for the last 6 or 8 weeks. and have long been considering making this post.
I been watching Wade a lot this season and he is basically incredible every single night. A year ago, i wouldn't have thought this discussion was possible. But, to me, he truly does seem better than Lebron and Kobe the last couple months. He just decideds he wants to win, and does whatever crazy things are neccesary to do so.
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I could be on board with this. Especially since I watch Houston shut down Bron. If Wade improved his 3pt shot, it wouldn't even be that hard to justify saying he's the best. That said, if he needs to make a 3, he prolly will.
that's not fair shasher.
if dwade ever had to face 2 defenders of equal skill (to shane and artest) and similar size (to wade), i doubt be would do much better.
i think the dwade/bron discussion is a legit one, i'm just saying...
Dwade is in same conference as Bron, so they face the same people the same amount.
I don't know how you will find someone who is the size of wade that can play defense the same a artest. I don't think that man exists. Ron's size is a part of his effectiveness.
Houston did good against Wade this year. Though Wade has been amazing all year, he has been absurd after the allstar break. I wish the two had one more game.
Of course Wade is playing with a bunch of 15-year-olds. Makes it easier to put heavier pressure on him for defending teams. Not that it does them any good:D
I also just feel like Wade is a little better during the final five minutes of games than Lebron. And, for the record, i still put Kobe ahead of Lebron too, for similar reasons.
exactly!
i think artest and shane are way better suited to guard lebron than dwade. as you said-
-snip-
I don't know how you will find someone who is the size of wade that can play defense the same a artest. I don't think that man exists. Ron's size is a part of his effectiveness.
-snip-
i couldn't have said it better myself. in fact, i tried and failed on my first comment:)
yea, you won't hear me hate on kobe or dwade. i'm just saying that hou matches up PERFECTLY with bron. they may in fact have THE 2 best bron defenders in the league. i can't think of any better than shane or ron.
can you guys?
whatever, i guess i'm just devils advocate. sorry.
it's a good point, i think, that dwade is playing with more chumps than bron and therefore allows the D focus on him more.
kinda makes me think..what does that say about kobe?
anything? does it speak even more about kobe that even though he is surrounded by all that talent, defenses still insist on focusing mainly on him? hrmmm...
that would be an interesting comparison: who would demand more defensive attention if they all (Kobe,LBJ,Dwade) had the same team-mates? does that make any sense? i guess we should axe shane:) hold on i got an idea
ATTN: GEORGE KARL
RE:D
Dear George,
Please axe Shane about this crap.
Love,
Basketbloggers
Bron said that he would give Wade the MVP cause without him, that team would be absolute junk. But, he said, that's not what makes someone an MVP.
I wish I knew what made someone an MVP.
I don't think i got you completely the first time, jake. but i do now. Well, except the george karl part. Why is it HIM we are asking? Isn't he a nugget coach or something?
-snip-
I wish I knew what made someone an MVP.
-snip-
Yeah, that's true. Really, i don't think anyone has any idea.
Btw, Detroit plays Houston tomorrow. And, just to make it personal: You guys suck ass, we are going to destroy you!!!! Roar!!
ATM, i am listening to the pistons-knicks game, but watching the houston-lakers game.
wait, they are not playing tomorrow. I could've sworn i heard they were playing. Well, good thing. detroit is about to lose in overtime to the knicks. They totally fell apart; they had the win. Imma go to bed and cry myself to sleep.
i made a joke a while ago about how george karl was reading our blog because he changed his strategy one time and did exactly what shasher was saying he should do.
I guess nobody remembers that Jimi already deciphered the DaStern Code:
http://basketbloggers.blogspot.com/2008/01/picking-mvp.html
Continuing Jimi's list a little further:
89-90 Magic Johnson #1
88-89 Magic Johnson #2 (beat Isiah)
87-88 Michael Jordan #
86-87 Magic Johnson #1
85-86 Larry Bird #1
84-85 Larry Bird #1
83-84 Larry Bird #1
82-83 Moses Malone #1
81-82 Moses Malone #2 (beat Larry)
80-81 Julius Erving #1
79-80 Kareem Abdul Jabbar #2 (beat Larry ROY)
Most of the time (almost 60%) it's the best player from the best team. 75% of the rest of the time (or 30% overall) it's the best player on the 2nd best team (when its best player is better than the best on the 1st). Last year was only the 3rd exception in the past 28 seasons (or about 10% of the time).
Before this year's prediction; quick look at those exceptions:
Last year (07-08) is probably the easiest to explain as it plays into the same type of situation as best player on 2nd best team. Kobe had 2 teams ahead of him [DET/BOS] but both had balanced scoring so he clearly trumped their 'best' players' stats.
05-06 is a little more complex though there may be a little logic to it. Similar to 07-08, the top two teams were well balanced scoring-wise. Not only does that naturally pull down the stats of the best player on those teams, it de-values them somewhat with MVP voters. Discounting both top teams already puts us into the exception category. That still doesn't explain how he leaped Dirk (best player on 3rd best team; like Kobe above). I can only guess that it has to do with public image. First, Dirk just isn't very 'fun' to watch; he's a low-charisma jump-shooter. Second, probably more importantly, voters were still high on the SSOL. They could justify their preference by reminding themselves that he'd won it the year before & also by arguing the marked statistical improvement of anyone new to the team (neglecting the fact that Steve himself showed the same improvements). Though the voting wasn't very close, I do remember a number of grumblings when he won this one from people championing Dirk's cause.
Finally 87-88. According to the rule, it probably should've been Larry. He put up some very impressive numbers (30pts 9.3rb 6.1ast 1.6stls 0.8blks) on the 2nd best team. I can only make a few guesses as to why MJ won it (as my memory fails me at the moment). First off, Larry had already won 3 in a row (84-86); second, McHale was peaking, giving some credence to the balanced scoring team issue. Most importantly (if accurate), it seems as though people were enamoured with MJ in a similar way that we fell for little Stevie Nash; he was flash and energy (though fueled by youthful athleticism). At the all-star break he & 'Nique had thrilled the world at the dunk contest and he took home all-star MVP by leading the East to a 138-133 win (40 pts on 17 for 23, 8rbs, 3asts, 4stls, 4blks). Lastly, his season numbers were gaudy. He'd averaged 37 pts/gm the year before (only his 3rd year in the league & the first to do so since Wilt in '63) and at the end of '88: 35pts, 5.5rbs, 5.9asts, 3.2stls, 1.6blks.
All of which was a much longer than intended way of figuring out whether DWade has any real shot at an MVP. Short answer: No.
Long answer: The Heat aren't going to end the season with one of the top 2 (or even 5) best records. The only 3 teams likely in the running for top record are Boston, Cleveland, & LA. Boston players are out due to the balanced scoring issue again (as would SA & ORL should either make a crazy run down the stretch). That pretty much leaves Kobe & LeBron. LeBron's numbers are better all-around, again, this year so if Cleveland finishes 2 or better (even if LA is #1), he should beat out Kobe handily (especially since Kobes won last year; which brings up a tangential point - recent MVP titles didn't seem to be as much of a negative in the 80s & 90s as it has on the 00s). It's unlikely but the only way I see Kobe beating LeBron is if LA ends up 1st, Boston end up 2nd, and Cleveland finishes 3rd (probably more than 3 games back). That would mean Cleveland will have to drop a few games as they've gained a few on Boston in KG's absence.
After looking, I don't see any real culprits for an 'exception' this year. If a couple had to be ID'd, I guess Dwayne would be 3rd on my 3 most likely. Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, & then D.Wade.
For D.Wade, I think he'd have to increase his scoring avg to approach 34 pts/gm if he were to maintain a similar winning percentage; that would require almost a 50pt/gm average over the last 19 gms - not gonna happen. If Miami goes on a crazy tear (18-1) and he average close to 40 over that period, it's possible I guess. I still don't see him leaping Kobe & LBJ though.
If the Hornets or the Magic have the same type of season close they'd technically have a shot but again, no real culprits for an exception this year.
In the end, LeBron is well on his way to winning his first MVP.
I believe you!
BTW, i said Wade is the best. I didn't say he is an MVP candidate:D
Sorry Tom, I guess I was a little off-topic. I was mainly responding to the MVP criteria ponderings.
great analysis jer. glad you're back with us
Word and word. To jeremy and jake, respectively.
Jeremy, the master of response. Why don't you ever post your own stuff?
I don't know. Wade may average that close to 50. heheh
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