Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Predictions... that are actually predictable.

Screw awards and no more trying luck our way into predicting regular season seedings. Hell, reg.seas.seedings only matter so that we actually have somewhere to start when we're doing playoff match ups anyhow.

Now that we have those brackets, let's see everyone's tourney card, along w/ number of games it'll take to win each series.

FYI:
1v8 plays 4v5
3v6 plays 2v7

The matchups (bracket ordered):

EAST
Celtics v Hawks
Cavs v Wizards
Magic v Raptors
Pistons v Sixers

WEST
Lakers v Nuggets
Jazz v Rockets
Hornets v Mavericks
Spurs v Suns


Not sure I have any but I guueeeeesss random predictions are ok too... Finals MVP? Player X disappears? LBJ has X games that will be Instant Classics? Anyone make a name for themselves (i.e. Deron last year)? Any other big story/headline?

37 comments:

Patrick said...

EAST
Celtics v Hawks
--Celtics in 4
Cavs v Wizards
--Wizards in 6
Magic v Raptors
--Magic in 5
Pistons v Sixers
--Pistons in 7

Celtics v Wizards
--Wizards in 5
Pistons v Magic
--Pistons in 6

Wizards v Pistons
--Pistons in 4

WEST
Lakers v Nuggets
--Lakers in 4
Jazz v Rockets
--Rockets in 7
Hornets v Mavericks
--Hornets in 7
Spurs v Suns
--Spurs in 7

Lakers v Rockets
--Lakers in 5
Hornets v Spurs
--Hornets in 7

Lakers v Hornets
--Lakers in 6

Lakers v Pistons
--Lakers in 6

I think the toughest choice was Suns VS Spurs. Probably the worst team that the Spurs could have matched up against.

Utah really sucks on the road. I don't get it, but they don't get rebounds and they turn the ball over away from home. Home team wins every game in this series.

That Pistons series is gonna be intersting. Philly will be stealing every game they get.

Wizards have owned the Celtics this year, and they'll be even better with agent 0.

I chose the Lakers to come out of the West assuming Bynum comes back and contributes.

Whether its Lakers or the Hornets, the West will win this championship.

Or I'll take a bite out of a live fish at boy's club.

jeremy said...

My series winners & respective games it'll take (+ means I could see it going one more, - means I could see it going one less; I tried to use it sparingly):

EAST

R1
Celtics in 4
Cavs, 6
Magic, 5
Pistons, 6-

R2
Celtics, 5+
Pistons, 6-

CF
Celtics, 7


WEST

R1
Lakers, 5+
Jazz, 6+
Mavericks, 7
Spurs, 7

R2
Lakers, 7-
Spurs, 7

CF
Spurs, 6+


CHAMPS - Celtics, 7-
KG=finalMVP

Well... First round through, I loved 6's. I had to add the +/- system to vary it up a little. 6 just seems a little like a cop out to me.

Is anyone else just freakin' GIDDY about the West's 2-7 and 3-6 side of the bracket?!? It wouldn't surprise me to see any of those 4 in the Conf. Finals, and 3 of the four have a legitimate chance at the Finals/Championship. Mollie is going to H-A-T-E basketball by June. And to think, she recently mentioned that this season hasn't been that bad thus far. Tip-o-da-iceberg-baby!

My only prediction: Brent Barry lights it up (18+ pts) at least 3 games (assuming SAN makes it out of the 1st round).

Don't think he'll make it but if Bynum comes back, I predict Yao will wheel onto the floor and run over Bynum & Gasol breaking all 4 of their ankles.

jeremy said...

Wow... I'd notepaded mine before posting so didn't even read yours beforehand. We were suprisingly similar in many match ups but far apart in end results :). I like the way you're thinking though! Go Lakers!

Figured since I won't be watching these with anyone I should clear up my subjective picks. I try to keep my 'predictions' as objective as possible.

I will be rooting against the Celtics & Pistons in every series they play. If the play each other, go pistons. I don't think it's too likely but I'll root for the Wiz against the Cavs just so they get to play the Celtics.

As for the West, I hope the Rockets can beat Utah but I'm right with you on that prediction. The only reason I picked Utah is that I figured they could take 1 of the games in Houston but wasn't sure about the Rockets taking one back in Utah.

For the first time in a while, I'll be rooting against the Spurs. A) I'd rather the Lakers face ANYONE over the Spurs and B) I'd love for Kobe & the Lakers to be able to get revenge on the Suns for knocking them out 2 yrs in a row and on Shaq for winning a championship in another uniform.

Finally, I'll root for the Hornets over almost anyone. I love this team. Last year it was Utah for me, this year, I like NOLA.

In the end, as long as the Celtics lose, I'll be happy. F the Yankees. F the Patriots. F the Celtics.

(Funny... I'd probably hate the Red Sox too if it weren't for them kicking Yankee ass so often)

jeremy said...

Ok one more and then I'll stop. Promise.

Arguement number six thousand four hundred and twelve for seeding the entire league 1 through 16.

In year's past complaints were heard that the 'championship' series was a Conference Finals or even a Conference SemiFinal matchup. There's no way to be sure because we can have permutations of these first 2 rounds played over and over again so that we can get a true understanding of strength BUUUUT. Assume that one of the 4 teams in the bottom half of the West bracket (NOH, DAL, SAN, or PHX) actually wins it all. If the two other teams that they beat in Rnd1 and Rnd2 take them to more games than the East Champ does, they'll have a legitimate beef about who is really #2 (and possibly 3 & 4). Now, I know nobody really cares about #2 or #3 and so on. But it does speak directly to Strength of Schedule. Strength of PLAYOFF Schedule now though. Maybe BOS & DET are truly better than the West teams but I don't believe that. I certainly don't believe it enough to give them gimmies for the first two rounds though.

Here's what the bracket COULD look like:

(1)Boston v (16)Portland
(8)Utah v (9)Orlando

(4)New Orleans v (13)Cleveland
(5)San Antonio v (12)Golden State


(3)Lakers v (14)Washington
(6)Houston v (11)Denver

(2)Detroit v (15)Toronto
(7)Phoenix v (10)Dallas


And then Round 2 (assuming no upsets which is unlikely but...):

BOS v UTA
NOH v SAN

LAL v HOU
DET v PHX


R3

BOS v NOH
LAL v DET

F

BOS v DET


Who wouldn't LOVE that? And all of this talk of tradition and losing the East vs. West rivalry. Uhh... Bullshit. Did you even look at the above? I think watching a higher number of East vs. West matchups every year would create more real rivalry than has been there since the 80s! I truly believe it would give the East more legitimacy as well. Even though fewer teams were represented in round 1, a single upset immediately evens the playing field in round 2. Like say in this series: 7 games between NOH & CLE. CP3 vs. LBJ. LeBron certainly has the potential to beat NOH. A DET/PHX series anyone?? I'll take TWO! And to top it off with TWO monster East vs. West match ups in R3!?!! I just pee'd myself. I've got to stop playing 'what if'. OR... I could do this for the past 20 years and imagine what could have been - the possibilities!

In all seriousness though, I hope this happens someday soon. If a pro team can be moved from the 6th largest fan base (heard that somewhere though it doesn't seem right?) in the U.S. to uh... OKCity, then I have to believe that anything's possible.

On that note, I'm going to buy a lottery ticket at lunch.

Richard Kilian said...

Man, you crack me up Patrick. I do agree with you on the Cavs Wiz series though. I think the Lebron is gone after 6 games.

Then the Wiz get swept by the celtics.

jake said...

i like the +/- jer!

EAST
R1
celtics in 5
wiz in 7 * (or bos over cle in 5+, then pistons over bos in 7 in the CF)
magic in 6
pistons in 5

R2
wiz in 6+
pistons in 7

CF
pistons in 5


WEST
R1
lakers in 6-
rockets in 7. shasher called this one just right. bet its a great series
hornets in 7. **
spurs in 7 ***

R2
lakers in 7 home team wins every game
spurs in 6-

CF
spurs in 6-



F
spurs in 6-
finals mvp-timmy



* honestly, i think the cavs will prolly beat the wiz in 7 but i HAD
to put the Cs losing to the wiz. it's true they have murdered the Cs all year.
i watched a lot of that last game and it was hard to believe what i was
seeing, but they legitimately beat the crap out of boston. although, i think it
will take the full 7(-) . hey richard did you watch bos play the wiz?
what makes you think they will sweep? out of the 4 x they played this season,
bos only won the 1st game. in EVERY loss, the big 3 from bos played full minutes.
i'm just saying...you need to post that KGstrodamus picture again. that's all


**i would have said 5, but last night dal played REALLY well against
noh, so i think it will be tough. still, noh is hot.


***i really wanted to go suns here, but last night timmy was out of his mind.
we haven't seen that guy all year, and if he's gonna bring that type of crap
to the table, then i'm certainly not going to bet against him. still, suns got
shaq for exactly that reason, so i guess we'll see.

jake said...

also, my notepad skills suck apparently. spacing is Fd

Patrick said...

Come one Richard, post some predictions!

jeremy said...

Good points Jake. My only point of contest - if the Spurs win it all, I'll take Gyrobili as finals MVP.

I know I'm pathetic because about every 20 minutes I refresh this page to see if anyone else has posted. And when they haven't, I still re-read stuff I've already seen two and three times already...

jake said...

haha me and shasher and jer are playing the same game

i'm pathetic too jer, and i hear you about manu. but after watching timmy last night, i had to do it. i haven't seen him look like that in... well, ever

refresh, read, refresh

richard, where u at?! tom?

Patrick said...

Yea, what's tha deal? Aren't the playoffs starting in 2 days?

jeremy said...

I'm hesitant to pull up espn too much at the new job but I'd like to check box scores & rosters of WAS/BOS games to see why WAS has had so much success.

Tangent: Though in 2001 I think SAN beat LAL 4-0 in the regular season only to lose 4-0 to them in the playoffs. That cemented my abiguity about regular season equating to postseason (and my conspiracy theory that Phil used to screw w/ the Spurs in the regular season, weakly coaching and giving his team mucho accolades leading up to the game so their intensity would be low, setting them up to have his real plans unveiled in the post-season and they wouldn't have had time to adequately prepare for them. That could just be my fear of the Spurs talking though.

Back to the WAS/BOS... I'd imagine WAS has the appropriate defenders necessary to hold the BOS-3 to near/under their avgs; do they have someone that just kills BOS offensively? I'd say Gilbert (as Ray may be a little old/slow to guard him) but he hasn't played all season. I can only think that WAS is pulling some Nellie shit and making BOS play certain lineups to match up with them better. Whatever it is, I hope someone figures it out so other teams can mimic it soon.

fyi, I forsake notepad a couple months back in lieu of 'wordpad' for that exact reason you mentioned. I still refer to it as notepad too though.

Patrick said...

It looks like it was just a big helping of Jamison, Butler, and Stevenson.

They out-rebounded them in the first game, but it was even in the other two.

About equal TOs in the first two, but half as many in the last one.

One constant was more FTs. That usually equates to being more agressive to the rim.

I think they just match up well...oh, and Boston sucks.

Patrick said...

http://www.nba.com/games/20080112/BOSWAS/boxscore.html

http://www.nba.com/games/20080114/WASBOS/boxscore.html

http://www.nba.com/games/20080409/BOSWAS/boxscore.html

dullstone said...

yeah, this is when predictions become a lot mroe fun:)

i'll read this thread after i post, so my predictions aren't influenced by yous. Though, i did read Haircut's East.

I'm sorry, but i am too superstitious to not pick detroit to win it all. So bare that in mind.

East-round 1
Celtics (in 4)
Wiz (in 7)
Magic (6)
Pistons (5)

West-round 1
Lakers (6)
Jazz (7)
Mavs (7)
Suns (7)

Notes:

Cavs-Wiz: Cavs jsut aren't click'n. They been playing 50/50 ball for a long time now. But i still think this series is a toss up, given Lebron in 4th quarters.

ORL-TOR: Toronto has really been struggling. But i still think they got the talent to steal a couple from Orlando.

DET-PHI: Phil is rock'n and roll'n lately. Also, they matchup well aginst DET. I think they would have a very decent chance against WASH or CLE, but not detroit. I expect/hope DET to have full gamefaces on, and not lack effort as they have sometimes the past couple playoff runs.

LAL-DEN: like every series in the West, this could go 7. But LAL plays defense and DEN doesn't, so it probnably won't. Even with one of my mancrushes, iverson.

UTA-HOU: Well, i finally saw a Utah game for like the 2nd time this season this morning(Tivo). I wasn't sure who to go with here, but then i remembered that houston is down another injured player now. But Utah isn't all that consistant, so i don't know. I hope its Hou, cause Utah is the only team that really has completely dominated DET last couple years.

NOH-DAL: As much as I think CP is a golden god, i don't think NOH is deep enough. I expect NOH will outscore Dallas when CP is in the game, and then get outscored when he sits down.

SAS-PHX: It kills me to not pick SAS. I went with PHX cause i think SAS will still struggle to put points on the board. I think they really need guys like Horry(injured) and Barry (has barely played a scratch lately due to the trades).

BOS-WASH: BOS (6)
ORL-DET: DET (6)

ECF:
BOS-DET: DET (7)

LAL-UTA: LAL (7)
PHX-DAL: PHX (7)

WCF:
LAL-PHX: PHX (7)

Notes:
I know WAS has played very well on BOS, but, i still take BOS.

The west, i couldn't be more indecisive. As indicated by predicting 7s on everything.

Finals
Det-PHX: DET(7)

MVP: Rasheed Wallace

alright, now i'll see what yous got:)
===============

"Finally, I'll root for the Hornets over almost anyone. I love this team. Last year it was Utah for me, this year, I like NOLA."

-I can say this exactly the same. I think everyone is in love with CP. To me, he is as badass as the Kobes and Lebrons, but he is a very cool guy. He is not likely to do any of the bullcrap that Kobe has done. And he is certainly not gonna get a "Choosen One" tattoo, like this one guy that comes off rather smug to me. (i do like Kobe and Lebron, but still, they are kinda punks) And that story of his highschool game where he got 61 points is a wonderful story. Look for the NBA to market this guy as much as the possible can.


I got more, but i gotta run. Be back later.

Jimi said...

Predictions:

BOS-ATL: BOS IN 3 (after three games of losing by 30 or more the Hawks will just forfeit)
PHI-DET: DET IN 5
TOR-ORL: ORL IN 5
WSH-CLE: CLE IN 6 (I know the Cavs suck but there's no way LeBron lets them lose in the first round)
DEN-LAL: LAL IN 5
DAL-NOL: NOL IN 6
PHO-SAS: SAS IN 7
HOU-UTH: HOU IN 7

BOS-CLE: BOS IN 5
DET-ORL: DET IN 6
LAL-HOU: LAL IN 5
SAS-NOL: SAS IN 6

BOS-DET: BOS IN 7
SAS-LAL: SAS IN 7

SAS wins in 7 over BOS

dullstone said...

"Maybe BOS & DET are truly better than the West teams but I don't believe that. I certainly don't believe it enough to give them gimmies for the first two rounds though."

Though i guess you believe it enough to give them homecourt advantage every round. I know BOS and DET would have homecourt in the finals anyway, but at least that is only one round. And with the 2-3-2, the direction of advantage is a bit ambiguous.

In your scenerio, you have DET-BOS with homecourt over 5 different teams from the West. I am not sure the West should get punished throughout the playoffs for being in the most competitive conference ever.

I am not going to lay out my other reasons, but here is one no one has ever mentioned b4 (,possibly). I imagine because i am a bigger fruit than most sports fans.

It is pretty dang wasteful to be flying back and forth across the entire country over and over; when, you could just be traveling distances like 50-1000 miles. It is pretty damn far-Boston to Portland, Utah to Orlando, etc. I doubt the players would like that too ((i have heard like only one (former) player support the 1-16 seeding, Reggie Miller.))

Total Miles Round 1 CLE vs. WASH = 2,700.

Total Miles Round 1 LAL vs. WASH = 24,300 miles.

If your curious, here's how i came up with that. For the first two games you just use the distance inbetween, cause only one team travels. But each venue change after that, you gotta add the distance multiplied by two. Both teams got a private Jet.

(Haha, i just heard my neighbor
across the hall climax while typing that. Maybe they should have sex further from their front door.)

dullstone said...

Oh yeah, and besides the enviromental tear--NBA is a business. From a financial perspective, no owner is going to want to exponentially increase travel costs just because some years one conference is heavier.


Also, i think that a team that traveled 940 miles total in its previous series (like detroit would if TOR took them seven games.) Has an advantage over a team that travels 15,200 miles (the total for the visiting team in a hypothetical, seven-game, POR-ORL matchup, after all, we aren't jsut talking about one year).

You always gotta account for the extremes. The disparity could be even greater than the example i gave. And if one team gets lucky and plays neighbors for a few rounds, and another team is unlucky, and goes coast to coast for a few rounds. It seems like fatigue would be much more significant factor for the unlucky team. I think the lower the amount of varibles available to affect a teams performance the better.

jake said...

too true, tom. good points.

jeremy said...

First of all - yes, I do believe in giving the better records home court. This year I would have to give DET & BOS home court advantage because of those records and I was using this year as the example. In future years (I'm pretty sure I've said this in a prior post somewhere) I'd propose playing even numbers of games with everyone (3 games against all other teams except 2-3 other random out of conference teams in which you'd only play two). That system would likely have allowed better footing for the West and slightly worse footing for the East. Before the 1-16 post above I actually tried to crunch numbers to see if there was a way to equate SOS to avg number of wins & losses for the 40 games that matter (assuming 20 wins & 20 losses from almost everyone) so I could then plug the SOS for other teams into BOS & DET and reseat them based on this but I just couldn't make it work. The formulas were making them lose 15-25 games more which seemed excessive to me. The point is, I tried to fix it this year and couldn't. In future years, were the 1-16 system go into play, the regular season records would be more fair (a smaller gap in SOS). If you didn't see it, check out the first post in April again. I added to it the other night. It's not a perfect mathematical model but you get point which is all I'm trying to do.

I have to concede that you're right about the environmental impact. I love fruit and dirt too so I can certainly sympathize with that argument. I don't have an easy fix for this. If there's one point I'd bring up is that the percentage of impact based on the total of the 2460 game season has got to be relatively low.

As for the trip being longer and more arduous (and possible advantages for other teams)... I’m not buying it. Adding 1, 2, or even 3 hours to a flight just barely increases the overhead/inconvenience/stress level of the trip. Most of the difficulty traveling has to do with the moving around part. Checking in and out of hotels, taking buses or cabs to the airport, getting processed by security, checking luggage, fighting the herds of people with your (and their) luggage, transfers to do it all again, etc. The owners have probably powder puffed their experience to make it better than, say, mine so they probably don't have to deal with as much (like the last 3-4 examples above) but they still have the first ones. And those things don't get any worse with a longer flight; in fact, they’re the same in every way except the longer sitting time (in a privately chartered jet w/ leather seats, personal theaters, and all of the Woody’s I want).

The former players’ viewpoint argument is bunk in my mind too. Most of them are spoiled, stubborn old men who don't like to hear such a big change about the system than enabled them to be who/where they are today. I can understand that perspective; it's just not a good reason to avoid change. Ask people like the draft class or the rookies and I bet the responses are much more aligned with public opinion (which still has a little fear-of-changing-something-they-love-already bias).

Along those lines...why not just give it a shot and see how it'll work?? If, after a few seasons, there's pretty strong consensus that it was a mistake, change back! It's that simple. If you're Stern, you apologize and admit it was a mistake. You don't go in advertising that as an option but if it happens, it may just bring more appreciation of the original product (like the introduction of 'New Coke' and love for 'Coke Classic' after it came back; strategic failure?). Stern would just append his admission of mistake with a positive statement that it was great the way it was for 60 years.

YES WE CAN! YES WE CAN!

jeremy said...

I had a chance to look over the WAS box scores last night too. Don't know that I found the key but the way I see it is that there was 1 blowout loss, 2 close wins, then 1 blowout win. In the first 3 games they had a worse shooting % from the field but balanced it out by getting to the line for about 8 more shots and actually hitting 10-11 more making their Adjusted Scoring % [I divided FTMs & FTAs by 2 (in attempt to convert them to approx. FGs) and added them to FGM & FGA and took the percentage of that] higher than Boston’s in their wins.

Loss – 43 vs 51 - TOs@-5
Win - 46 vs 45 & TOs@+1
Win - 48 vs 46 & TOs@0
Win - 54 vs 47 & TOs@+11

The three that they won, Rondo was neutralized (he didn't play at all in one of them). So they effectively took away their only true penetrator. Pierce is close but he’s never been an attack the rim/paint type of guy. You mentioned it but it seems like turnovers seemed to matter quite a bit. As long as they stayed close, the games were close (and went to WAS due to their own penetration/foul shooting). Once TOs became unbalanced though, the advantage immediately went one team’s direction.

Obviously I'd have to watch the games to confirm but the only generality that I can see is that it looks like they fed them a large dose of small ball. I doubt it was run and gun as much as young quickness vs. slower legs. Penetration leading to some buckets but definitely more foul shots. I don’t know if many teams can put four smalls on the floor as effective as WAS though.

Maybe Kobe, Farmar, Vujacic, Radmon, and Turiaf? ;]

jeremy said...

I started a tally of Finals predictions to see if we can predict by committee. 1 point for making it to the finals, 2 points for winning it. I went ahead and added Richard’s C’s for now.

I also started a crazy spreadsheet of our predictions that I’ll post too but I need more data. We need to get Kyle & Chad’s predictions too (& Richard’s obviously).

Shasher: Lakers – Pistons
Jer: Celtics – Spurs
Jake: Spurs – Pistons
Tom: Pistons – Suns
Jimi: Spurs – Celtics
Dick: Celtics - ?


TOTALS
--------------
Spurs – V
Celtics – V
Pistons – IIII
Lakers – II
Suns – I

jake said...

man, i'm a dork. but jeremy, you really take the cake. way to go man

richard, chad, kyle....
sound off!

dullstone said...

That is weird to me i am the only that picked PHX. I'm not saying ya'll are wrong by any stretch, Just that i am used to thinking PHX is overrated, and everyone thinking they are better than i do. I didn't plan on putting them in the Finals.

I guess watching Amare recently (and what Shaq's presense does for him) has increased my opinion of them. I feel more inclined to pick LAL or SAS, but LAL still has injuries, and like i said, i need to see SAS put a few more points on the board to get my confidence in them up to what i am used to.
==================

Your schedule arguments are good Jeremy; but, i will never budge. As i imagine is the same with you, which is all good.
========
One small clarification from my last post. In this confusing sentence:

"((i have heard like only one (former) player support the 1-16 seeding, Reggie Miller.))

I only included the word former cause reggie doesn't play anymore, but i intended to mean he is the only suppporter i have heard so far from all players, past and present. One thing i have heard players say a few times is "timing" or "being in the right place at the right time" has always been a part of every sport. Not the strongest argument; but, that is what i've heard.
=============
The following is everyone's least favorite kind of argument, a nostalgia or tradition one. This isn't even a real argument; so, take it with a grain of salt. If this were an argument it would be, "It is bad to change things." Dumb indeed. This is just a small personal sentiment.

To me, conference rivals, are like relatives you don't get along with. I see them all the time, i know them well, and they are all Bastards.

Some west teams are pretty much strangers to me. I like having at least one sector familiar, my brain is too small to keep up with 30 teams equally. Without conferences I would not be well informed on my neighbor teams like the crappy Bulls, the crappy Bucks, and the crappy Nets. For the most part, i would probably just be familiar with all the good teams.

Points like this can't really be debated, so i am just saying this is something i will miss.
=============
I would still love the NBA if they changed everything, and I have no problem with a trial period of a completely different system. They did, after all, get rid of that new ball they introduced a couple seasons ago. (Though they are still trying to bring in a "better" ball.)

It's funny, i don't remember this argument at all from a decade ago. Have people changed, or has the game? Or did i just somehow not notice the arguments back then-though I was watching a tremendous amount of ball then.

jeremy said...

I can DEFINITELY respect where you're coming from so I'll budge a little, but not much :]. I don't know where my enthusiasm comes from on this. Probably seeing Portland & Golden State miss the playoffs in lieu of the Hawks and (not as much) Sixers. You're definitely right that we hadn't heard this much before this year though... in fact when I first heard Jimi's proposal, I freaked a little. I didn't know what to think of it but, needless to say, it's grown on me. Hope I didn't come off offensive at all; certainly didn't mean for it to.

As for dorky... I gotch'ya dorky right here buddy: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pMP-TZSjHcRJZFWywjZa7XQ

1st tab is just our predictions thus far. 2nd tab is a weighted series wins (1 pt for a 1st round series win, 2 pts for 2nd round, etc.). 3rd tab is weighted by round similar to the second tab but gives a little credit for the wins a team gets when they lose a series. Again, later round wins are weighted accordingly.

You'll have to scroll right on the 2nd & 3rd tabs to see the totals.

I was going to give credit to a team that won convincingly by weighting total games played but decided against it for now.

The 3rd tab seems to be less a Finals champ predictor than it may be a power rating. The Lakers are probably the best example here. Though only Patrick has them in the finals, everybody has them in the CF so they scored better than I thought. The Spurs are another example. They actually suffered a bit because two ballots have them going out before the CF.

dullstone said...

"Hope I didn't come off offensive at all; certainly didn't mean for it to."

Hell no, you didn't come off offensive at all:)

dullstone said...

I was jsut thinking, they plan on eventually expanding the league to include like 5ish Europe teams. So they are gonna have to majorly rework the format anyway.

dullstone said...

And, the trifecta.

Fun spreadsheet Jeremy. What does the 'sanity" line mean?

ya know the LAL used to be the Detroit Gems? Which proves my theory everyone loves Detroit. ;D

jeremy said...

'sanity' was just the total of the columns. When I was converting predictions like 'XTeam in 6' into 4 wins for XTeam and 2 losses for YTeam I wanted to make sure the columns at least added up to the same. I still could have put the loss (or wins) in the wrong team/row though so peops may want to doublecheck their section to make sure I'm not misrepresenting their picks.

As for the Detroit Gems... I'd heard that a long while back and chose to forget about it I guess. If I'm not mistaken, zero players actually went with the team. The new owners essentially just bought equipment so I never counted it as part of the franchise since exactly zero of the personnel moved.

jeremy said...

Damn! I was inspired to read a little about the Detroit Gems and the one huge thing the MPLS Lakers did inherit was the #1 pick from the 4-40 record of the Detroit Gems. Who'd they pick you ask? Mikan. I guess I have to officially acknowledge them as part of their past... :]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Gems#1946:_Detroit_Gems


In attempt to get in the mood for the playoffs (as if I need more encouragemnt at this point), I started watching a Greatest Game on ESPN Classic. It was game 6 of the 2005 WCSemis. Dallas vs. Suns. Because it started making me crazy that I couldn't remember who the Spurs played in the WCFinals, I couldn't wait until the end of the game to see who won.

Surprise, surprise. I guess 4-1 isn't too memorable but I'm still surprised I forgot. They've got a little more history than just last year.

http://www.nba.com/playoffs2005/series_phosas.html

dullstone said...

Heh, i did the same thing. I was jsut about to post that same trivia bit on Mikan and the atrocious 4-40 Gems.

They were bought for $15,000. I read they were about to cave in, so Minn. probably saved that, for lack of better term, francise.

Appearantly, Detroit also had a team called the Detroit Falcons for one year in '46-'47. Also bad.

I never knew Canada had a team in the 40s. Toronto Huskies (BAA). http://www.apbr.org/nbaroots.html

Or how about the Providence Steam Rollers; really rolls of the tongue, hehe.
========

I wish i had ESPN Classic. I used to watch all those great games from the 80s when i was in highschool. I have Comcast cable, but they don't have Classic

jeremy said...

Well I don't like it (and Patrick definitely won't like it) but Hollinger did his predictions:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2008/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=playoffpredictions-080418

based on his Power Rankings:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking

I went ahead and added his predictions to the spreadsheet just to have more input.

jake said...

hey jer- i guess my * thing didnt really work out, cause you've got me picking the cavs over the wiz and i don't think it's gonna happen.
(if you read my * note, i kinda do think it's gonna happen, but i think the wiz match up so well with the Cs, i had to pick them over the cavs, otherwise my precious celtics will have too easy a path to detroit. wait a second... where's richard? am i just busting his balls in vain over here?!)

jake said...

i didnt mention, but the above comment is in reference to your dorky ass spreadsheet jer. did you go to dork school or something? that thing is RAD

and tom, as for phoenix, i hear you loud and clear. i've been one of the biggest phoenix lovers all year, and i was really going to pick them to win it all until i saw that sas utah game last week. i'm not kidding, i've NEVER seen timmy play like that. i really believe he was playing better and smarter ball than ever. it's like he flipped a switch or something, cause he was a completely different dude than this 'has he lost a step?' timmy we've been seeing all year.
and that just sealed the deal for me. i totally agree with you about amare- i think he's definitely the biggest benefactor of shaq joining the team. can you imagine what it's like for him? it seems like he had been wearing ankle weights all year, then when shaq showed up he finally got to shed the extra lbs. i mean, he's had to guard and be guarded by the opponent's biggest guy for EVER, and now all of a sudden he gets to play against PFs?! it's like a dream come true for him, and you can see that by his #s.
i think he's gonna be huge, and if not for Super Timmy i really think phoenix would have my vote here.
i can't discount hollinger (and i think we've talked about this before) when he talks about how phoenix built their current roster with one guy in mind- Super Timmy

but i'm telling ya man, if ST stays in that mindset he was in against utah, i don't think anyone will be able to stop him and his crew. did you guys see that game? he only played the first half, and by then they were ahead by so much he just sat down with 14pts, 11rebs, 3 blks, 2 stls, 0 TOs. in 26 min.
i just think its a bad idea to bet against a monster

jeremy said...

My bad Jake. I read your asterisk like: 'this is what I really believe will happen but I had to pick the Wiz so they could beat BOS'. I corrected it.

I'm exactly with you on SAN too. My hesitancy is that we usually see them playing like they did Wed. for 4-6 weeks before the playoffs if they're going to win it all. They didn't play lights out but I think Pop was really resting a bunch and developing a bench chemistry too. I don't know that they can pull it together in time to take every series but how do bet against them?? I had very similar thinking w/ LeBron. People have trashed his team & coach for years and every year he's actually elevated his success level. Maybe the new teammates thing will be the downfall but how can I bet against LeBron?? Does anyone remember what he did to the Pistons last year? Someone may be able to discount it a little by saying that Flip kept playing one-on-one but how many players could take advantage of that the way he did?

dullstone said...

"i just think its a bad idea to bet against a monster"

Good advice.

I wish i watched more of that SAS-UTA game now. They blew it out so fast i watched it all on fast-foward.
===============
"Someone may be able to discount it a little by saying that Flip kept playing one-on-one but how many players could take advantage of that the way he did?"

Is that known for sure? I always kinda hoped the players for some reason jsut wouldn't double. It kills me to think that Flip wouldn't have told them to double him. He knows way more about basketball than me, and i spent that whole 4th quarter screaming at the tele, "Effin Double Him!"
=======

It isn't just that CLE has a new lineup for me; a large part of my reason for picking WASH is a bunch the key CLE players have some kinda injury they are dealing with. Lebron-back, Wallace-back, Booby-ankle, Z-i think back, can't remember.
==============
I know there has been a lot of timmy talk this year, but didnt' he have another 20-10 season?

Heh, just looked. He almost did. His numbers are only slightly down from his career average.http://www.nba.com/playerfile/tim_duncan/career_stats.html

jeremy said...

For the record - Even when I think the Lakers will win, I'll predict otherwise for fear of jinxing them through hype. The Spurs will win the WCF...