i like your predictions and i really hope SA wins. i think they are my favorite team, but i feel kind of like i'm cheating when i pick them. i mean, with the same core guys (and less time playing together) they beat everyone in the past. i even think this team has stronger members than the previous spurs teams that won it all. i just think phx will be too good if amare gets back to 100%. i hear you about coach pop (and to a lesser extent, aj and phil) controlling the pace of the game, and stopping steve nash in his tracks. its a valid point and in a lot of ways i hope you are right. in fact, if amare doesnt shape up, i'm sure you will be right. but if he does shape up... i dont know man he was just too good when he was peaking, and if he returns to performing like he once did (i know its cliche and thats what everyone is saying) i think phx will murder everyone regardless of tempo control. i don't want to beat a dead horse, but have you seen matrix's stat line lately? jesus.
A lot of it is just sheer prejudice on my part because I can't think of another run & gun offense that has won it all since the showtime lakers. Even there, Riley was known to preach defense heavily so maybe noone since the seventies. I can remember a number of them that got beat by the champions though in the past few years. Sacremento, Dallas, & New Jersey are great examples of teams that could beat 95% of the teams in the NBA but each of them were stopped by 1 team (the Lakers or Spurs) and each time it was a clinic of patience, tempo, and execution by the eventual winners.
The reason I put AJ in there is his tenure w/ Pop coupled w/ his players' fire to win.
Looking at PHX' losing records thus far is another thing I did:
-Lakers, 1-2 (granted both were early on) -Clips, 1-2 (both early again) -Utah, 0-2 -Dallas, 0-2 -San Antonio, 0-1
They could be peaking early and they could be dead tired by the end of the season...
All of that said, it has to happen some time; the odds alone dictate that. Coupled with the way the NBA has changed the way their refs call the game the past couple of years and you may be right. If anyone does, PHX has the talent to make me eat my words.
I didn't really mention it because it looks too much like homer talk but just so it's somewhere... The Lakers are my darkhorse to win it ALL.
touche. when i analyse my fear of the suns, its not so much their record thus far that scares me. their record against the heavy hitters is dismal at best, but i think it should be noted that a lot of those losses came on the backside of back to back games (i know its just an excuse, but i've noticed that my spurs and my rockets also really suck on back to backs. whatever, its still an excuse) . also, most of the suns losses this season came before amare was playing full minutes and avging a double double. what does scare me (see my comments on jimi's 'suns are hot' post) is amare's recovery and consequently, the suns improvement (particulary on the defensive end).
but you make an excellent point: they have yet to beat dallas, sa, OR utah. which is something that, as a spurs fan, gives me hope. in fact, i feel a lot better about my spurs chances after reading your post. well spoken, jer.
oh and are you serious about those lakers? if they can beat phx,sa,dal, and/or hou to the finals i'll bake you a purple and gold cake.
haha... I just saw this so now I get your icing post. Good one.
Yeah, I'm not saying the Lakers are definitely going to win it all; I just think they have the right ingredients. Athleticism, Youthful Ignorance, Great Coaching, Defensive Intensity, and Clutch Play (O & D). I mean, they had PHX down 3-1 last year in the 1st round and lost game 6 by only a point or two. If they could have pulled that off, I know they could have beat the Clippers and I think they match up very well with Dallas (regarless of the score on 1/18). Odom is about the only defender in the league that I've seen have any effectiveness on Nowitzki, and Kobe has always been able to get to the basket against Dallas. I do think Dallas is the best team in the NBA though. The only real reason they might have had a chance against them was because of the exhausting SA series Dallas played prior. On that line, that's one of the main reasons Miami had a shot at all. Dallas had just played 2 extremely grueling series before the finals. As for the Lakers winning it all; even if they do make it out of the West, an East Finals Matchup may be the final insurmountable hump for them. One thing playing for them is that the Lakers will likely only have to overcome two of those teams as one or two will be eliminated in the 2nd round (possibly even the first round) by another of them.
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Oh... and PHX gets beat by DAL or SA (and maybe even LAL) because each of these teams has a coach that understands tempo control.
i like your predictions and i really hope SA wins. i think they are my favorite team, but i feel kind of like i'm cheating when i pick them. i mean, with the same core guys (and less time playing together) they beat everyone in the past. i even think this team has stronger members than the previous spurs teams that won it all.
i just think phx will be too good if amare gets back to 100%. i hear you about coach pop (and to a lesser extent, aj and phil) controlling the pace of the game, and stopping steve nash in his tracks. its a valid point and in a lot of ways i hope you are right.
in fact, if amare doesnt shape up, i'm sure you will be right. but if he does shape up...
i dont know man he was just too good when he was peaking, and if he returns to performing like he once did (i know its cliche and thats what everyone is saying) i think phx will murder everyone regardless of tempo control.
i don't want to beat a dead horse, but have you seen matrix's stat line lately? jesus.
A lot of it is just sheer prejudice on my part because I can't think of another run & gun offense that has won it all since the showtime lakers. Even there, Riley was known to preach defense heavily so maybe noone since the seventies. I can remember a number of them that got beat by the champions though in the past few years. Sacremento, Dallas, & New Jersey are great examples of teams that could beat 95% of the teams in the NBA but each of them were stopped by 1 team (the Lakers or Spurs) and each time it was a clinic of patience, tempo, and execution by the eventual winners.
The reason I put AJ in there is his tenure w/ Pop coupled w/ his players' fire to win.
Looking at PHX' losing records thus far is another thing I did:
-Lakers, 1-2 (granted both were early on)
-Clips, 1-2 (both early again)
-Utah, 0-2
-Dallas, 0-2
-San Antonio, 0-1
They could be peaking early and they could be dead tired by the end of the season...
All of that said, it has to happen some time; the odds alone dictate that. Coupled with the way the NBA has changed the way their refs call the game the past couple of years and you may be right. If anyone does, PHX has the talent to make me eat my words.
I didn't really mention it because it looks too much like homer talk but just so it's somewhere... The Lakers are my darkhorse to win it ALL.
touche.
when i analyse my fear of the suns, its not so much their record thus far that scares me. their record against the heavy hitters is dismal at best, but i think it should be noted that a lot of those losses came on the backside of back to back games (i know its just an excuse, but i've noticed that my spurs and my rockets also really suck on back to backs. whatever, its still an excuse) .
also, most of the suns losses this season came before amare was playing full minutes and avging a double double. what does scare me (see my comments on jimi's 'suns are hot' post) is amare's recovery and consequently, the suns improvement (particulary on the defensive end).
but you make an excellent point: they have yet to beat dallas, sa, OR utah. which is something that, as a spurs fan, gives me hope.
in fact, i feel a lot better about my spurs chances after reading your post. well spoken, jer.
oh and are you serious about those lakers? if they can beat phx,sa,dal, and/or hou to the finals i'll bake you a purple and gold cake.
haha... I just saw this so now I get your icing post. Good one.
Yeah, I'm not saying the Lakers are definitely going to win it all; I just think they have the right ingredients. Athleticism, Youthful Ignorance, Great Coaching, Defensive Intensity, and Clutch Play (O & D). I mean, they had PHX down 3-1 last year in the 1st round and lost game 6 by only a point or two. If they could have pulled that off, I know they could have beat the Clippers and I think they match up very well with Dallas (regarless of the score on 1/18). Odom is about the only defender in the league that I've seen have any effectiveness on Nowitzki, and Kobe has always been able to get to the basket against Dallas. I do think Dallas is the best team in the NBA though. The only real reason they might have had a chance against them was because of the exhausting SA series Dallas played prior. On that line, that's one of the main reasons Miami had a shot at all. Dallas had just played 2 extremely grueling series before the finals. As for the Lakers winning it all; even if they do make it out of the West, an East Finals Matchup may be the final insurmountable hump for them. One thing playing for them is that the Lakers will likely only have to overcome two of those teams as one or two will be eliminated in the 2nd round (possibly even the first round) by another of them.
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